Incident duration, which can be defined as the
time difference between incident occurrence and incident site clearance [3–5], includes four time intervals or phases : (1) incident detection/reporting time, (2) incident preparation/dispatching time, (3) travel time, and (4) clearance/treatment FAK kinase inhibitor time. This study investigates the influences of various traffic incident characteristics, such as temporal, road, incident-related, and environmental characteristics, on incident duration time using parametric hazard-based models and flexible parametric hazard-based duration models, to provide more suitable distribution for the base hazard function. The dataset used in this study was extracted from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing, and it contains the characteristics and duration times of incidents that occurred on the 3rd Ring expressway mainline in 2008. This paper begins with a literature review about previous research on incident duration analysis and prediction. This review is followed by details on flexible parametric hazard-based
model development. Next, the used data is described with the use of descriptive analyses of incident duration time and incident characteristics. The model estimation results and model parameter interpretation are then presented. This paper concludes with a summary of findings and directions for future research. 2. Literature Review Over the past few decades, many studies have been conducted to investigate appropriate approaches and techniques
for the estimation and prediction of traffic incident duration time, mainly on freeways. The most typical approaches include (1) regression methods [3, 7–9], (2) Bayesian classifier [10–12], (3) Decision trees and Classification trees [13, 14], (4) neural networks [15–17], (5) the discrete choice model , (6) the structure equation model , (7) probabilistic distribution analyses [20, 21], (8) support/relevance vector machines , and (9) hybrid methods . These studies on traffic incident duration modeling have been summarized elsewhere [24, 25]. Several kinds of hazard-based models have been recently used to estimate the factors affecting traffic incident Carfilzomib duration/clearance time or predict traffic incident duration/clearance time. The majority of studies on incident duration analysis have used parametric hazard-based models, that is, accelerated failure time (AFT) models, because of the following reasons: (1) the baseline hazard rate contributes to the understanding of the natural history of the incident through the manner in which the hazard rate changes over time; and (2) the AFT model allows for the estimation of an acceleration factor that can capture the direct effect of a specific factor on survival time .